Prediction record
HitmarketsThe ETH/BTC ratio will continue to decline in the near term
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I do think the ethereum Bitcoin valuation is very much on borrowed time at this point and is likely going to continue to deteriorate to the downside”
The ETH/BTC ratio will continue to decline in the near term
- Made on
- 2023-04-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-09
The ETH/BTC ratio is net lower at the horizon than at the utterance date.
Criterion ('net lower at the horizon than at the utterance date') is satisfied: ~0.065 → ~0.050 over 2023-04-09 to 2024-04-09, a decline of ~22%. Endpoint values computed from BTC/ETH spot prices on those dates and cross-checked against CoinGecko's 2023 range table; direction is unambiguous. Outcome/scoring deferred.
Sources
ETH/BTC Outlook: Shanghai Hard Fork
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ETH/BTC at the utterance date (~2023-04-09) was roughly 0.065-0.066 (BTC ~$28.3k, ETH ~$1.86k). At the one-year horizon (~2024-04-09) it was roughly 0.050-0.051 (BTC ~$69k, ETH ~$3.5k). The ratio is net LOWER at the horizon than at utterance.
CoinGecko's ETH/BTC history table shows 2023 ranged 0.050 (low) to 0.077 (high), avg 0.063; the ratio only 'lost' the 0.05 level at the end of July 2024, meaning April 2024 sat just above ~0.05 — clearly below the April 2023 level near 0.065. Weakness through 2024 was driven by spot-BTC-ETF inflows from Jan 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio will continue to decline in the near term- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources