Full record
HitmarketsAltcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bleed back to BTC) over the next 18 to 24 months
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“all coins should in general bleed back to bitcoin over you know over the next 18 to 24 months or so”
Altcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bleed back to BTC) over the next 18 to 24 months
- Made on
- 2023-04-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-18
Altcoins in aggregate decline against Bitcoin (net decline of alt/BTC) over the ~18–24 month window following the utterance.
Criterion (net alt/BTC decline over ~18-24 months following 2023-04-18) is well supported: dominance rose from the mid-40s% (April 2023) to ~60%+ by April 2025, the direct market-cap-share proxy for altcoins bleeding back to BTC. Rise was not monotonic (brief alt rallies occurred), but the net direction over the full window is unambiguous. Dominance figures are aggregate market-cap-share proxies; a later stage could optionally cross-check a broad OTHERS/BTC or top-alt basket index for precision.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BTC dominance rose steadily across the entire ~18-24 month window: annual average 45.6% (2023) → 51.9% (2024) → 59.3% (2025 YTD), and it crossed 60% on April 7, 2025 for the first time in four years — i.e., altcoins in aggregate lost substantial value relative to BTC over the window ending April 2025.
Rising-dominance trend context (BTC dominance up for a third consecutive year), consistent with a net multi-year alt/BTC decline.
Analysis noting BTC dominance ~59.3% in 2025, near its 12-year average, reflecting sustained altcoin underperformance vs BTC through the period.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Altcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources