Prediction record
HitmarketsAltcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bleed back to BTC) over the next 18 to 24 months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“all coins should in general bleed back to bitcoin over you know over the next 18 to 24 months or so”
Altcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bleed back to BTC) over the next 18 to 24 months
- Made on
- 2023-04-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-18
Altcoins in aggregate decline against Bitcoin (net decline of alt/BTC) over the ~18–24 month window following the utterance.
Criterion (net alt/BTC decline over ~18-24 months following 2023-04-18) is well supported: dominance rose from the mid-40s% (April 2023) to ~60%+ by April 2025, the direct market-cap-share proxy for altcoins bleeding back to BTC. Rise was not monotonic (brief alt rallies occurred), but the net direction over the full window is unambiguous. Dominance figures are aggregate market-cap-share proxies; a later stage could optionally cross-check a broad OTHERS/BTC or top-alt basket index for precision.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC dominance rose steadily across the entire ~18-24 month window: annual average 45.6% (2023) → 51.9% (2024) → 59.3% (2025 YTD), and it crossed 60% on April 7, 2025 for the first time in four years — i.e., altcoins in aggregate lost substantial value relative to BTC over the window ending April 2025.
Rising-dominance trend context (BTC dominance up for a third consecutive year), consistent with a net multi-year alt/BTC decline.
Analysis noting BTC dominance ~59.3% in 2025, near its 12-year average, reflecting sustained altcoin underperformance vs BTC through the period.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Altcoins in general will lose value relative to Bitcoin (bl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources