Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will fall rapidly (disinflation, not hyperinflation) in the second half of 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we're much more likely to have rapid disinflation during the second half of this year than we are to have hyperinflation”
US inflation will fall rapidly (disinflation, not hyperinflation) in the second half of 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.6
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
US core inflation declines meaningfully over 2023-H2 with no sustained re-acceleration; hyperinflation does not occur.
Written criterion (core inflation declines meaningfully over 2023-H2, no sustained re-acceleration, no hyperinflation) is satisfied on both core CPI and core PCE. Hyperinflation plainly did not occur (single-digit, falling YoY rates). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
FOMC and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Core CPI (all items less food and energy) YoY was 4.8% in June 2023 and fell to ~3.9% by December 2023 — a meaningful, monotonic decline across H2 2023 with no sustained re-acceleration (per BLS CPI releases).
Core PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge) YoY fell to 2.9% for December 2023, down from ~4%+ mid-year; on a 6-month-annualized basis core inflation ran near the 2% target in H2 2023. Disinflation, not hyperinflation.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.6- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will fall rapidly (disinflation, not hyperinfl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources