Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by late 2023 or early 2024.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“if if we do get a Fed pivot later this year um which I think is is probably a likely like either late this year early next year later on this year early next year”
The Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by late 2023 or early 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
The Fed makes its first rate cut of the cycle on or before 2024-03-31.
Criterion (first cut on or before 2024-03-31) was determinable as of the deadline: no cut had occurred by 2024-03-31, so the criterion is definitively unmet. First actual cut landed ~5.5 months after the deadline. resolved_on set to the deadline, the date the outcome became determinate. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
CPI
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC's first rate cut of the cycle was on 2024-09-18 (a 50 bps cut to a 4.75%-5.00% target range) — the first reduction since March 2020. No cut occurred on or before the 2024-03-31 deadline; the Fed held rates at 5.25%-5.50% through H1 2024.
Independent confirmation the September 2024 cut was the first rate reduction in over four years, i.e. none happened in the record's window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by late 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources