Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve's peak policy rate in 2023 will be no higher than 5.5%.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the max that the FED can go this year is five and a half”
The Federal Reserve's peak policy rate in 2023 will be no higher than 5.5%.
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The upper bound of the Fed funds target does not exceed 5.5% at any point during 2023.
Criterion asks whether the target's upper bound EXCEEDS 5.5% at any point in 2023. The peak reached exactly 5.50% (July 26) and never went higher, so it did not exceed 5.5%. Boundary case: prediction said 'no higher than 5.5%' and the actual peak was precisely 5.5%. Outcome assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
FOMC and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed's final 2023 hike (July 26, 2023) lifted the target range to 5.25%-5.50%. The upper bound of 5.50% was the peak for the year and was held (not exceeded) at the Sept, Nov, and Dec 2023 meetings through year-end. Peak upper bound = 5.50%, which does not exceed 5.5%.
Fed held at 5.25%-5.50% in November 2023 (second consecutive hold), confirming 5.50% as the 2023 peak upper bound with no exceedance for the rest of the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve's peak policy rate in 2023 will be no h…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources