Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle is over.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“my base case is that they're done”
The Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle is over.
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The Fed does not raise its target rate again after 2023-03-22 (no further hikes in 2023).
Criterion: no further hikes after 2023-03-22. The disconfirming event first occurred at the May 3, 2023 hike; a second hike followed July 26, 2023. Fully determinable. Outcome assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
FOMC and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
After the March 22, 2023 meeting, the Fed raised its target range AGAIN on May 3, 2023 (to 5.00%-5.25%) and once more on July 26, 2023 (to 5.25%-5.50%). So there were two further hikes in 2023 following the prediction date.
Timeline of 2023 FOMC actions confirms hikes in Feb, March, May and July 2023 (holds thereafter). The hiking cycle was not over as of March 22, 2023; two 25bp hikes followed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources