Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US economy will enter a recession within 12 months (by 2024-02-17)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“there is a good chance that this inevitably will resolve in a recession but that could be six months from now it could be 12 months from now we simply do not know”
The US economy will enter a recession within 12 months (by 2024-02-17)
- Made on
- 2023-02-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-02-17
NBER declares a US recession, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP begin, on or before 2024-02-17.
Criterion is fully evaluable and met neither branch: no NBER recession declaration and no start of two consecutive negative-GDP quarters by 2024-02-17. Resolution date set to the deadline, the point at which the 12-month window closed with no recession having begun. No outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Labor Market Conditions Index
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee announced no new business-cycle peak (recession start) after the April 2020 trough; as of and beyond the 2024-02-17 deadline the US remained in the expansion that began April 2020. NBER declared no recession within the 12-month window.
The FRED NBER-based Recession Indicator (USREC) shows no recession months during 2023 or early 2024, confirming NBER never dated a contraction in the window.
Real GDP grew every quarter across 2023 (BEA), so no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP began on or before 2024-02-17.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US economy will enter a recession within 12 months (by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources