Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin dominance will continue to rise significantly (even including stablecoins), regardless of whether the market is in a bull or bear scenario.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“Bitcoin's dominance is likely going to continue much higher”
Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise significantly (even including stablecoins), regardless of whether the market is in a bull or bear scenario.
- Made on
- 2023-02-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-10-01
Bitcoin dominance (BTC market cap as a share of total crypto, including stablecoins) is materially higher than its ~Feb-2023 level (~42–44%) at some point within the horizon window.
Criterion (dominance materially higher than ~42-44% Feb-2023 level at some point before 2026-02-14, including stablecoins in the total) is satisfied: dominance rose to ~52% avg in 2024 and ~59-60%+ in 2025, an increase of roughly 15+ percentage points. Standard BTC.D metrics (CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap/TradingView) compute BTC as a share of TOTAL crypto market cap, which includes stablecoins in the denominator, matching the record's stated basis. Resolved_on set to the first crossing of 60% (Oct 2024) as a clear materiality marker; the threshold of 'materially higher' was cleared earlier in 2024.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin dominance (BTC market cap as share of total crypto including stablecoins) rose materially above its ~Feb-2023 level of ~42-44%. Annual average dominance climbed from 45.6% in 2023 to 51.9% in 2024 to 59.3% in 2025 YTD. Dominance first reached 60% in October 2024 and hit 60.5% on April 7, 2025 (first time above 60% since March 2021).
CoinGecko: Bitcoin dominance rose for a third consecutive year, driven by spot Bitcoin ETF approval (Jan 2024) and institutional adoption; the standard dominance metric measures BTC vs. total crypto market cap (denominator includes stablecoins).
CoinDesk (Dec 18, 2025): BTC dominance hit 60% again amid strong U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows, confirming sustained elevation well above the Feb-2023 baseline through the horizon window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise significantly (even…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources