Full record
MisseconomyA US recession occurs in 2023 (accompanied by a rising unemployment rate).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I think the recession is going to come in 2023”
A US recession occurs in 2023 (accompanied by a rising unemployment rate).
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The US enters a recession during calendar 2023 (NBER-dated recession beginning in 2023, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP).
Criterion: NBER-dated recession beginning in 2023 OR two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. Neither occurred — all four 2023 quarters posted positive real GDP growth and NBER dated no 2023 recession. Unemployment did not rise into recession territory (stayed near ~3.5–3.9% through 2023).
Sources
Bitcoin: Year-To-Date Returns (Bear Market Years, Recovery Years, Halving Years, Mania Years)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US real GDP grew +2.5% for full-year 2023 (vs +1.9% in 2022) per BEA, with all four quarters positive: Q1 +2.0%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 +5.2% (later ~4.9%), Q4 +3.4% annualized. No two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP occurred.
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee dated no recession peak in 2023; the US economy remained in the expansion that began after the April 2020 trough (no NBER-dated recession beginning in calendar 2023).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A US recession occurs in 2023 (accompanied by a rising unem…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources