Prediction record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 sets a new bear-market low in 2023, below its 2022 trough.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“there's a high likelihood unfortunately that the s p will be putting in a new low this year”
The S&P 500 sets a new bear-market low in 2023, below its 2022 trough.
- Made on
- 2023-01-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.48
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The S&P 500 trades below its October 2022 low (~3,577) at some point during calendar 2023.
Criterion: S&P 500 trades below its Oct 2022 low (~3,577) at some point in 2023. The 2023 low (~3,808, March 13) stayed comfortably above 3,577; the index made no new bear-market low in 2023 and closed the year up strongly. Full year elapsed; resolved.
Sources
SP500: Bear Market Structure, Recessions, and the Federal Reserve
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The S&P 500's bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 was set on 2022-10-12 (intraday ~3,491.58 on Oct 13, 2022). This is the reference trough the criterion cites (~3,577).
The S&P 500's LOWEST level in calendar 2023 was ~3,808 (closing low 3,808.10 on 2023-03-13, around the SVB banking stress); it never traded below the October 2022 low of 3,577 at any point in 2023 and instead rallied to ~4,769 by year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.48- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.48
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500 sets a new bear-market low in 2023, below its 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources