Full record
MisseconomyThe US Smoothed Recession Probability metric rises further in 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“this probability function this U.S smooth procession probability function will likely go up more in 2023”
The US Smoothed Recession Probability metric rises further in 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-01-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The US Smoothed Recession Probability (FRED RECPROUSM156N) rises during 2023 relative to its end-2022 level.
Criterion (metric rises during 2023 relative to end-2022 level) is NOT met: it declined net over the year (1.34% -> 1.06%) and stayed below the Dec-2022 value throughout. Caveat: this series is revised over time and values are all sub-1.5% (near historic lows), so the readings could shift slightly with vintage; direction (net decline) is robust. FRED CSV/API blocked (403) during research; values sourced from the YCharts mirror of the same FRED series.
Sources
Smoothed Recession Probabilities
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED RECPROUSM156N (Chauvet-Piger Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities) by reference month: Dec 2022 = 1.34%; across 2023 it stayed below that level every month (Jan 0.26, Feb 0.42, Mar 0.44, Apr 0.34, May 0.42, Jun 0.56, Jul 0.28, Aug 0.28, Sep 0.30, Oct 0.60, Nov 0.58) and Dec 2023 = 1.06%. End-2023 (1.06%) is LOWER than end-2022 (1.34%), and the series never rose above its Dec-2022 level during 2023.
Series definition and source (Chauvet & Piger dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; released on a ~2-month lag and subject to revision).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US Smoothed Recession Probability metric rises further…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources