Full record
HiteconomyThe US returns to a phase of looser monetary policy by mid-to-late 2024.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we still probably will will get back to a phase of looser monetary policy by mid to late 2024 at the latest”
The US returns to a phase of looser monetary policy by mid-to-late 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The Federal Reserve shifts to looser monetary policy (rate cuts and/or ending QT / starting easing) by end of 2024.
Criterion (shift to looser policy via rate cuts and/or ending QT / starting easing by end of 2024) is met by the Sept–Dec 2024 rate cuts and the June 2024 QT slowdown.
Sources
Bitcoin: Year-To-Date Returns (Bear Market Years, Recovery Years, Halving Years, Mania Years)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On Sept 18, 2024 the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 50 bps to 4.75%–5.00%, its first rate cut since March 2020, explicitly a shift toward easier policy. Additional cuts followed in November and December 2024.
The Fed also slowed the pace of balance-sheet runoff starting June 2024 (Treasury runoff cap cut from $60B to $25B/month), a further easing of the tightening stance.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US returns to a phase of looser monetary policy by mid-…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources