Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will reach its terminal (peak) policy rate by March or May 2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the terminal rate is likely going to be reached by March or may of 2023”
The Federal Reserve will reach its terminal (peak) policy rate by March or May 2023
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-07-26
The Fed reaches its peak policy rate for this hiking cycle on or before the end of May 2023 (no hike after that date within the cycle).
Criterion required the terminal rate to be reached on or before end of May 2023 with no subsequent hike in the cycle. A 25-bps hike occurred on July 26, 2023 — after the May-31 deadline — so the peak rate was NOT reached by the required date. Prediction not borne out.
Sources
Bitcoin and Interest Rates
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed hiked to a 5.00–5.25% target range on May 3, 2023, but this was NOT the terminal rate: after pausing in June, the FOMC raised rates again by 25 bps on July 26, 2023 to 5.25–5.50% — the actual cycle peak, held through most of 2024.
Reporting confirms the July 26, 2023 hike took the fed funds target to a 22-year-high 5.25–5.50%, the peak of the 2022–2023 tightening cycle, occurring AFTER the end-of-May-2023 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will reach its terminal (peak) policy r…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources