Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin dominance will rise through 2023 and make a short-term local top by early 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“By early 2024, I think you'll see the dominance hit some type of short-term local top, right? And it'll probably come back down, and it might come back up and double-double peak like it kind of did over here, right? So maybe it doesn't even make it to the trend line at first, and then it comes up and has a double peak sometime in like late 2024, and then we come back down into a major alt season in 2025.”
Bitcoin dominance will rise through 2023 and make a short-term local top by early 2024
- Made on
- 2023-01-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
Bitcoin market-cap dominance (BTC.D) trends upward from Jan 2023 and prints a local peak on or before 2024-03-31.
Directional prong (BTC.D up from Jan 2023) is well supported. The 'local top by 2024-03-31' prong is supported by the Q1-2024 dominance high that preceded the mid-March 2024 altcoin rotation; exact peak date/level from CoinGecko/TradingView daily BTC.D series. Evidence points to met on both prongs. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) trended upward from ~40% in early 2023 to the ~52-54% range by late 2023 (annual average 45.6% in 2023, rising for a 3rd consecutive year), then continued into 2024 (annual average 51.9%).
In early 2024 BTC.D climbed further after the Jan 2024 spot-ETF approval (dominance ~49% in Jan) and printed a local top in the ~54-56% area in Q1 2024 before altcoins surged in mid-March 2024, pulling dominance back down — i.e. a short-term local peak on/before 2024-03-31.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin dominance (BTC's share of total crypto market cap) is a crypto-domain metric; 'markets' is reserved for stock/index/FX.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance will rise through 2023 and make a short-t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources