Full record
MissmarketsBitcoin will not rally to roughly four times its cycle low (approximately its prior all-time high) this cycle.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Bitcoin will likely not Rally up four times the low okay like it did in 2019”
Bitcoin will not rally to roughly four times its cycle low (approximately its prior all-time high) this cycle.
- Made on
- 2023-01-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-05
Bitcoin does not reach approximately 4x its 2022 cycle low (~$62,000–$66,000, near the prior all-time high) at any point within the horizon window.
Horizon window ran to 2026-01-29. Bitcoin reached ~4x the ~$15.5k cycle low (i.e., ~$62k+, near/above prior ATH) by late Feb / early March 2024, and far beyond thereafter. The predicted condition ('will NOT rally to ~4x the cycle low') did not hold — the ~4x level was reached. resolved_on set to the first clear crossing of the prior-ATH region (Mar 5, 2024).
Sources
Bitcoin: Comparing the Cycles
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
2022 cycle low was ~$15,476 (November 2022, FTX collapse). 4x that low is ~$61,900, within the record's $62,000–$66,000 threshold band.
Bitcoin broke above $60,000 in late February 2024 (~$63,000) and set a new all-time high of ~$68,800–$69,200 on March 5, 2024, then climbed further to ~$73,000 by mid-March 2024 and above $100,000 in December 2024 — comfortably exceeding ~4x the 2022 low well inside the 2026-01-29 horizon.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin will not rally to roughly four times its cycle low…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources