Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US economy will enter a recession in 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“the recession will come in 2023”
The US economy will enter a recession in 2023
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
An official US recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins during calendar 2023.
Both prongs of the criterion (NBER-dated recession OR two consecutive negative real-GDP quarters) fail for 2023: no NBER peak, and GDP grew every quarter. Determinable as of deadline 2023-12-31.
Sources
Jerome Powell's Speech: Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee — the official US arbiter of recessions — announced no business-cycle peak in 2023; the last dated peak remains February 2020 (trough April 2020). No NBER-dated recession began in calendar 2023.
FRED USREC (NBER-based recession indicator) shows no recession months during 2023. Real GDP (BEA) was positive in all four quarters of 2023, so the alternative 'two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP' criterion was also not met.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Quote/context uses 'I think...will come'; no 'likely' present. Marker must reflect actual certainty language.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US economy will enter a recession in 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources