Prediction record
HiteconomyShort-term Treasury yields (1-month and 3-month) will reach close to 5%
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“at some point soon you should be able to get close to five percent on some of these shorter time frames”
Short-term Treasury yields (1-month and 3-month) will reach close to 5%
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-04
The 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields reach approximately 5% (≥4.9%) by 2023-12-03.
Both the 1-month and 3-month yields reached/exceeded ~5% (≥4.9%) well before the 2023-12-03 deadline. resolved_on set to 2023-05-04, by which date both were clearly above the threshold (3M already ~5%+ since March, 1M at 5.84% auction). Criterion met. Underlying daily levels are from Treasury/FRED official series; no conflicting evidence.
Sources
Jerome Powell's Speech: Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The 3-month Treasury bill yield touched ~5.0% in early March 2023 and continued rising through the year, peaking around 5.4%–5.5% — comfortably ≥4.9%. CNBC (Mar 8, 2023) documented the '~5% risk-free 3-month Treasury.'
The 1-month Treasury bill yield rose above 5% in 2023; amid the debt-ceiling episode the Treasury sold 4-week bills at a record 5.84% auction yield on May 4, 2023, and 1-month yields stayed near 5.3%–5.5% into late 2023 — well above the 4.9% threshold. FRED series DGS1MO confirms the constant-maturity 1-month above 5% for most of the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Short-term Treasury yields (1-month and 3-month) will reach…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources