Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve's terminal (peak) policy rate this cycle will be in the 5.0%–5.5% range
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think the FED fund's terminal rate next year is likely between five to five and a half percent”
The Federal Reserve's terminal (peak) policy rate this cycle will be in the 5.0%–5.5% range
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The cycle's peak upper-bound federal funds rate falls between 5.00% and 5.50%.
Cycle peak upper-bound rate = 5.50%, which falls within the 5.00%–5.50% criterion range (inclusive upper edge). Confirmed as the terminal rate as of the 2023-12-31 deadline (no later hikes).
Sources
FOMC: Policy and Aftermath
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On 2023-07-26 the FOMC raised the target range to 5.25%–5.50% (upper bound 5.50%), the 11th and final hike of the cycle. No further hikes occurred; rates were held at 5.25%–5.50% at the September, November and December 2023 meetings, making 5.50% the cycle's peak upper-bound rate.
FRED DFEDTARU shows the upper limit peaking at 5.50% from 2023-07-27 and holding through the deadline window and beyond.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Verbatim literally reads 'is likely between...'; marker should be 'likely', not 'probably' (absent from quote).
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve's terminal (peak) policy rate this cycl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources