Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by early 2024 (not in 2023)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I think either ended 2023 or early 2024 is my guess”
The Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by early 2024 (not in 2023)
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
The Fed's first rate cut of the cycle occurs on or before 2024-03-31.
Criterion window (first cut on/before 2024-03-31) closed with zero cuts. The eventual first cut (2024-09-18) is well outside the deadline, so the prediction of an early-2024 pivot did not come true. Cowen's directional claim that the pivot would come in 2024 rather than 2023 was partially vindicated on timing-vs-2023, but the specific written criterion (by 2024-03-31) fails. Resolution is unambiguous; no conflicting evidence.
Sources
S&P 500: Rejection
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%–5.50% through all of H1 2024. The first rate cut of the cycle did not occur until September 18, 2024 (a 50bp cut to 4.75%–5.00%), roughly six months AFTER the 2024-03-31 deadline. No cut occurred on or before 2024-03-31, so the written criterion is not met.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar confirms no rate change at the Jan 30–31 and Mar 19–20, 2024 meetings — rates were held, not cut, in the entire window before the deadline.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Stored verbatim stitched 'the FED pivots in' from an earlier sentence into the guess sentence; the actual contiguous transcript words at t=540s are 'I think either ended 2023 or early 2024 is my guess'. Verbatim must be the pundit's actual contiguous words.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting rates by early 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources