Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will reach its terminal rate and pause hikes before mid-2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“they'll get there sometime before the middle of next year at which point they will likely pause and stop raising rates”
The Federal Reserve will reach its terminal rate and pause hikes before mid-2023
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-07-26
The Fed's last rate hike of the cycle occurs on or before 2023-06-30, followed by a pause.
Criterion requires the cycle's LAST hike on or before 2023-06-30 followed by a pause. The June 2023 pause was interim; a further hike landed on 2023-07-26, so the last hike of the cycle fell after the 2023-06-30 cutoff. Criterion not met.
Sources
FOMC: Policy and Aftermath
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC paused at its June 2023 meeting (held rates at 5.00%–5.25% on 2023-06-14) but then RESUMED hiking on 2023-07-26, raising to 5.25%–5.50%. The cycle's last rate hike therefore occurred on 2023-07-26 — after the 2023-06-30 cutoff — and only after that did a sustained pause begin.
Coverage confirms July 2023 was the 11th hike and the resumption after the June 2023 pause, i.e. the June pause was not the terminal pause.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will reach its terminal rate and pause…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources