Full record
HiteconomyThe US federal funds rate will reach the 4–5% range by the end of 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“four to five percent is where the FED funds rate needs to be sometime by the end of this year”
The US federal funds rate will reach the 4–5% range by the end of 2022
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
The upper-bound target federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 5.00% as of 2022-12-31.
Criterion asks for upper-bound target between 4.00% and 5.00% as of 2022-12-31; official value was 4.50%. Directly satisfied by the primary Fed source.
Sources
Jerome Powell's Speech: Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On 2022-12-14 the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25%–4.50% (upper bound 4.50%), a 50bps increase from 3.75%–4.00%. No further FOMC meeting occurred before year-end, so the upper-bound target as of 2022-12-31 was 4.50%, inside the 4.00%–5.00% criterion range.
FRED series DFEDTARU (Federal Funds Target Range – Upper Limit) shows 4.50% held from 2022-12-15 through year-end 2022.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Verbatim contains no 'likely'; committal marker is the normative 'needs to be' (framed 'my speculation'). Marker must quote language actually present.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US federal funds rate will reach the 4–5% range by the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources