Full record
HitmarketsCorporate earnings in 2023 will come in below analyst expectations
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“we still have to contend with earnings in 2023 likely coming in below expectations”
Corporate earnings in 2023 will come in below analyst expectations
- Made on
- 2022-12-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-25
Aggregate S&P 500 2023 earnings come in below the consensus analyst estimates held as of Dec 2022.
Criterion (aggregate 2023 S&P 500 earnings below the Dec-2022 consensus) is satisfied: actual full-year EPS (~1% growth) undershot the ~$228-231 / ~4% growth consensus held at end-2022. resolved_on set to when full-year 2023 operating results were finalized by S&P Global (post-Q4 season, ~Mar 2024). Exact final EPS figures vary by provider (operating vs reported basis) but all agree the actual came in below the Dec-2022 consensus. No outcome value (o) assigned.
Sources
Inflation Below Consensus | Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
As of Dec 2022, bottom-up analyst consensus called for 2023 S&P 500 EPS of roughly $228-231 (~4-5% growth). Actual 2023 full-year operating EPS came in materially lower (~$213-222 operating; reported/GAAP ~$194), with full-year earnings growth of only ~1% - well below the Dec 2022 consensus. Multiple sources (Morgan Stanley, RBC, AllianceBernstein, FactSet) documented the year-start estimates as too high and the actual result as a miss versus that starting consensus.
S&P Dow Jones Indices FY2023 operating-earnings release confirms full-year 2023 operating results (Q4 2023 earnings season concluded); actual full-year EPS growth of ~1% fell short of the ~4% growth embedded in the Dec 2022 consensus of ~$228/share.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Corporate earnings in 2023 will come in below analyst expec…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources