Prediction record
HitmarketsMarkets will return to a bull market by 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“by the time we get out to 2024 I think a lot of this stuff is going to be resolved and we should be going back into a bull market”
Markets will return to a bull market by 2024
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
Major risk-asset indices (e.g. S&P 500 and total crypto market cap) are in a confirmed uptrend (>20% off cycle lows) at some point during 2024.
Both required index families (S&P 500 and total crypto market cap) were in a confirmed uptrend >20% off cycle lows during 2024 — in fact both hit new all-time highs. Criterion met with wide margin. Condition was actually satisfied well before year-end; resolved_on set to end of the 2024 evaluation window. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Jerome Powell's Speech: Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The S&P 500 rose ~24% in 2024 and set more than 50 fresh all-time-high closes; by October 2024 it was up over 65% from its October 2022 cycle low — far exceeding the >20%-off-lows uptrend threshold, in a confirmed multi-year uptrend throughout 2024.
Bitcoin rose ~110% in 2024 and crossed $100,000 for the first time on December 14, 2024. Total crypto market cap climbed to new highs (multi-trillion), vastly above the November 2022 cycle low (~$750B), confirming a risk-asset uptrend well beyond 20% off lows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Markets will return to a bull market by 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources