Full record
HitmarketsBitcoin dominance will rise (Bitcoin will outperform the altcoin market) over the next ~12 months
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I am short-term to medium term bullish on the Bitcoin dominance”
Bitcoin dominance will rise (Bitcoin will outperform the altcoin market) over the next ~12 months
- Made on
- 2022-12-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-19
Bitcoin market-cap dominance is higher at some point within 12 months of 2022-12-19 than at the utterance date.
Criterion (BTC.D higher at some point within 12 months of 2022-12-19 than at utterance) is satisfied with a comfortable margin: dominance rose from ~40% to the low-50s% during 2023. resolved_on set to the 12-month deadline (2023-12-19). Note: exact BTC.D values vary slightly by provider (with/without stablecoins), but the direction (a clear rise) is unambiguous across CoinGecko, TradingView, and Statista. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin dominance rose materially over the 12 months following 2022-12-19. BTC.D was roughly 38.6% at end-2022 (~40% in mid-Dec 2022) and trended up through 2023, with a 2023 annual average of ~45.6% and readings around the low-50s% by late 2023 (peaking ~54% mid-2023). Dominance was higher at many points within the 12-month window than at the utterance date - i.e., Bitcoin outperformed the broad altcoin market.
TradingView BTC.D series corroborates the upward trend in Bitcoin dominance across 2023 from the low-40s% into the low-50s%, exceeding the ~40% starting level within the 12-month horizon.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin dominance will rise (Bitcoin will outperform the al…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources