Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate to at least 5%, pausing in the 5%–5.5% range.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I now think they will get at least a five percent and and maybe they'll pause somewhere between the five to five and a half percent range”
The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate to at least 5%, pausing in the 5%–5.5% range.
- Made on
- 2022-11-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-22
The upper bound of the federal funds target range reaches at least 5.00% at some point within the window.
Criterion (upper bound of federal funds target range ≥ 5.00% at some point in the 2022-11-27 to 2025-11-27 window) is satisfied; first reached with the 2023-03-22 hike (effective 2023-03-23). The claim_canonical's additional detail ('pausing in the 5%-5.5% range') is context for a later stage but is not part of the written criterion, which is met.
Sources
Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC implementation note dated 2023-03-22 directs maintaining the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-3/4 to 5 percent, effective 2023-03-23 — the upper bound reached exactly 5.00%, satisfying the ≥5.00% criterion within the window.
The Fed subsequently raised the range to 5.00%-5.25% (May 2023) and 5.25%-5.50% (July 2023), confirming the upper bound stayed at/above 5.00% through the remainder of the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate to at least 5…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources