Full record
HiteconomyThe Fed continues raising interest rates for several more months after November 2022.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I do think the Federal Reserve will likely continue to tighten for months to come.”
The Fed continues raising interest rates for several more months after November 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-11-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-05-03
The Fed raises rates at more than one additional FOMC meeting after Nov 2022 (continued hiking into ~mid-2023).
Criterion met decisively: four additional hikes after Nov 2022, far exceeding the 'more than one additional meeting' bar, with continued hiking into mid-2023. Second additional hike (Feb 1, 2023) already satisfied the criterion; resolved_on set to the last in-window hike (May 3, 2023).
Sources
Unemployment Update: Implications for the Fed
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
After the Nov 2, 2022 meeting the Fed raised the target range at four consecutive additional FOMC meetings: Dec 14, 2022 (+50bp to 4.25-4.50%), Feb 1, 2023 (+25bp to 4.50-4.75%), Mar 22, 2023 (+25bp to 4.75-5.00%), and May 3, 2023 (+25bp to 5.00-5.25%). The criterion 'more than one additional hike' was satisfied by the Feb 1, 2023 meeting; hiking continued into mid-2023 as predicted, all within the May 4, 2023 deadline.
Dec 14, 2022 FOMC statement confirming the +50bp hike to 4.25-4.50% (first additional hike).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Fed continues raising interest rates for several more m…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources