Prediction record
HiteconomyIf November core CPI comes in below 6.3%, the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points at the December 2022 FOMC meeting.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“if in December we get a reading for November on core inflation that is lower than 6.3 percent I think they will likely go with 50 basis points”
If November core CPI comes in below 6.3%, the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points at the December 2022 FOMC meeting.
- Made on
- 2022-11-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-14
Conditional on Nov core CPI < 6.3%, the Fed raises the target rate by 50bp at the December 2022 FOMC meeting.
Conditional prediction: antecedent TRIGGERED (Nov core CPI 6.0% < 6.3%) and the predicted consequent (50bp Dec hike) occurred. Antecedent and consequent both confirmed against primary sources.
Sources
Inflation Report | Effect on Risk Assets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
November 2022 core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 6.0% over the prior 12 months, below the 6.3% threshold in the prediction's antecedent. Released by BLS on Dec 13, 2022.
On Dec 14, 2022 the FOMC raised the target range by exactly 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50%, breaking a string of four straight 75bp hikes. Both the antecedent (core CPI < 6.3%) and the predicted 50bp outcome occurred.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (Nov core CPI 6.0% < 6.3%) objectively occurred per BLS 2022-12-13 release; field should record the triggered condition.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If November core CPI comes in below 6.3%, the Fed raises ra…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources