Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US will enter an officially-recognized recession, with rising unemployment, in 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I suspect they will officially declare a session in 2023 is my guess I think they'll finally declare a recession at that point”
The US will enter an officially-recognized recession, with rising unemployment, in 2023
- Made on
- 2022-10-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
A US recession is officially dated (e.g. NBER) as beginning in 2023, or the US posts standard recession markers (consecutive negative-GDP quarters plus rising unemployment) during 2023.
Both criterion arms fail: no officially-dated 2023 recession (NBER) AND no consecutive negative-GDP-quarters + rising-unemployment markers. Authoritative sources: NBER, BEA (via FRED), BLS. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Real Estate: Houses For Sale / Sold Ratio
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has not dated any US recession beginning in 2023 (the last dated recession was the two-month Feb-Apr 2020 COVID recession). No 2023 peak/trough has been declared.
FRED NBER-based recession indicator (USREC) shows no recession flagged in 2023; real GDP was positive in all four quarters of 2023 and no consecutive-negative-quarter markers occurred.
The unemployment rate remained historically low in 2023, troughing at 3.4% in April 2023 and staying in the high-3%/low-4% range — the opposite of the 'rising unemployment' recession marker in the criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US will enter an officially-recognized recession, with…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources