Prediction record
MissmarketsThe US stock market will continue to struggle (bearish or sideways) through much of 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“the stock market will continue to struggle throughout the rest of this year and and a good part if not all of 2023”
The US stock market will continue to struggle (bearish or sideways) through much of 2023
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The S&P 500 fails to enter a sustained new uptrend (does not hold >10% above its 2022-decline range) for the majority of 2023, spending most of the year rangebound or lower.
Primary/authoritative index data. First-half 2023 saw some choppiness and a brief Aug-Oct pullback, but the year as a whole was a sustained uptrend well above the 2022 range — the criterion's 'majority of the year rangebound or lower' condition fails. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
S&P 500 Bear Markets with High Inflation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The S&P 500 gained ~24% (price) in 2023, entered a widely-declared new bull market in June 2023 (>20% off the Oct 2022 low), and rallied to close the year near record highs — decisively holding >10% above the 2022 decline range for most of the year. The index did NOT spend the majority of 2023 rangebound or lower; the criterion (continued struggle / no sustained new uptrend) is not met.
Total-return records confirming 2023 was a strong up-year (+24-26% incl. dividends), consistent with a sustained new uptrend rather than a struggling/sideways market.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US stock market will continue to struggle (bearish or s…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources