Prediction record
MissmarketsThe US stock market (S&P 500) will register its bear-market bottom in 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I'm guessing the bottom is going to occur on say like a random Tuesday in 2023 or something”
The US stock market (S&P 500) will register its bear-market bottom in 2023
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The S&P 500's lowest closing print of the 2022-2023 bear market falls within calendar-year 2023 (not before).
Determinable with high confidence from index closing-price records. Fully resolvable at window close (2023-12-31): the 2022 bottom was never breached in 2023. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
S&P 500 Bear Markets with High Inflation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The S&P 500's bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 was set on October 12, 2022 (intraday low next day). The index never traded below that level during calendar 2023; its 2023 low was materially higher, and it closed 2023 up ~24%. Therefore the bear-market bottom fell in 2022, NOT 2023 — the criterion (lowest close within calendar 2023) is not met.
Independent confirmation that 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022 was the trough (-25.4% from the Jan 3, 2022 peak of 4,796.56), and that 2023 was a strongly positive year (+24.2%), so no lower low occurred in 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.18- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US stock market (S&P 500) will register its bear-market…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources