Prediction record

Hiteconomy

US inflation will begin coming back down during 2023

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

as we get out into 2023. okay I think that it'll finally start to come back down

US inflation will begin coming back down during 2023

Made on
2022-10-13
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-12-31

Headline/core CPI year-over-year prints a sustained decline from its late-2022 peak at some point during calendar 2023.

Primary source: BLS. Criterion (sustained YoY decline from late-2022 peak at some point during 2023) is clearly met by official data. Nuance for the later scoring stage: the disinflation actually began in mid-2022, so 'begin coming back down DURING 2023' is arguably imprecise about timing, but a sustained decline was in fact ongoing throughout 2023 as written in the criterion. No outcome value assigned per instructions.

Sources

  • Inflation Coming In Hot

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • US headline CPI YoY peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, then declined steadily through 2023, printing 3.0% for the 12 months ended June 2023 (the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021) and remaining in the low-3% range (~3.1-3.4%) through year-end. A sustained decline from the late-2022 peak occurred throughout calendar 2023, satisfying the written criterion.

    Evidence

  • BLS CPI historical series confirming the monthly YoY trajectory declining across 2023 from the 2022 peak.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+3.02
Confidence
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

US inflation will begin coming back down during 2023
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2022-10-13

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Evidence firstMethodology