Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will begin coming back down during 2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“as we get out into 2023. okay I think that it'll finally start to come back down”
US inflation will begin coming back down during 2023
- Made on
- 2022-10-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Headline/core CPI year-over-year prints a sustained decline from its late-2022 peak at some point during calendar 2023.
Primary source: BLS. Criterion (sustained YoY decline from late-2022 peak at some point during 2023) is clearly met by official data. Nuance for the later scoring stage: the disinflation actually began in mid-2022, so 'begin coming back down DURING 2023' is arguably imprecise about timing, but a sustained decline was in fact ongoing throughout 2023 as written in the criterion. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Inflation Coming In Hot
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI YoY peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, then declined steadily through 2023, printing 3.0% for the 12 months ended June 2023 (the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021) and remaining in the low-3% range (~3.1-3.4%) through year-end. A sustained decline from the late-2022 peak occurred throughout calendar 2023, satisfying the written criterion.
BLS CPI historical series confirming the monthly YoY trajectory declining across 2023 from the 2022 peak.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will begin coming back down during 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources