Full record
HiteconomyUS core inflation declines considerably during 2023.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I do think you will see core inflation come down considerably in in 2023”
US core inflation declines considerably during 2023.
- Made on
- 2022-10-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-11
US core CPI year-over-year at end-2023 is materially below its late-2022 peak (e.g., core CPI YoY falls ≥2 percentage points from its 2022 high by Dec 2023).
Criterion (core CPI YoY falls ≥2pp from 2022 high by Dec 2023) is met: 6.6% (Sep 2022) → 3.9% (Dec 2023) = ~2.7pp decline. Resolved_on set to the Dec-2023 CPI release date.
Sources
The United States: Heading Into a Recession
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Core CPI (all items less food and energy) YoY peaked in 2022 at 6.6% (Sep 2022 print). End-2023 core CPI YoY was 3.9% (Dec 2023, released 11 Jan 2024) — a decline of ~2.7 percentage points from the 2022 peak, exceeding the criterion's ≥2pp threshold.
J.P. Morgan and DOL summaries confirm the December 2023 core CPI reading at 3.9% YoY, materially below the late-2022 high.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US core inflation declines considerably during 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources