Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin remains in an accumulation phase (no sustained bull-market breakout) for roughly another year from October 2022.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“there's a non-negligible chance that we could in fact break above it now it doesn't necessarily mean that the bull market is about to take off I would still contend that we likely have another year of of accumulation ahead of us”
Bitcoin remains in an accumulation phase (no sustained bull-market breakout) for roughly another year from October 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-10-29
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-10-29
Bitcoin does not begin a sustained bull-market uptrend (remains rangebound/below key resistance) through approximately Oct 2023.
Criterion (no sustained bull-market breakout; rangebound/below key resistance through ~Oct 2023) held. Caveat noted both ways: BTC did begin climbing off ~$27k toward ~$34-35k in the final days of Oct 2023, but at the deadline it remained well below prior ATH and below key resistance, so the 'still in accumulation' call held through the window.
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
From late Oct 2022 through the Oct 29, 2023 deadline, Bitcoin did not begin a sustained bull-market uptrend. It traded largely rangebound (roughly $16k-$31k for most of the window, including the ~$15.5k FTX low in Nov 2022), closing near $34,536 on Oct 29, 2023 — far below the prior ATH (~$69,000) and below key multi-year resistance.
The decisive breakout to new highs did not occur in the window; Bitcoin's 2023 high was only $44,130 (Dec 5, 2023), and new all-time highs did not arrive until 2024.
Corrections
- tags: Pure crypto price/trajectory bet must carry markets as secondary; matters here as the record is scoreable (feeds markets sub-score).
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin remains in an accumulation phase (no sustained bull…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources