The US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December 31, 2022.

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on 2022-09-21.

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

“So one could argue that there's essentially like a 97 likelihood that the federal funds rate by the end of the year is going to be at least four percent.”

The US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December 31, 2022.

Made on: 2022-09-21
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.99

Criterion

Resolution status: resolved
Resolved on: 2022-12-31

The upper-bound federal funds rate target is at or above 4.0% as of 2022-12-31.

Criterion (upper bound >= 4.0% as of 2022-12-31) is met: actual upper bound 4.50%. Dec 14 was the last FOMC meeting of 2022; no further change before year-end. No outcome value assigned per instructions.

Sources

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates 75 bps
YouTube · 2022-09-21
Source

Outcome evidence

On Dec 14, 2022 the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25%–4.50%, setting the upper-bound at 4.50% for the remainder of 2022. This is the final target set before year-end 2022, so as of 2022-12-31 the upper bound was 4.50%, i.e. at or above 4.0%.
Evidence Archive

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.99

Confidence: 97%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Contribution: +2.99

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: July 18, 2026
Made on: 2022-09-21

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-18
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-07
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-18

Back to profile