Full record
HiteconomyThe US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December 31, 2022.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“So one could argue that there's essentially like a 97 likelihood that the federal funds rate by the end of the year is going to be at least four percent.”
The US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December 31, 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-09-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
The upper-bound federal funds rate target is at or above 4.0% as of 2022-12-31.
Criterion (upper bound >= 4.0% as of 2022-12-31) is met: actual upper bound 4.50%. Dec 14 was the last FOMC meeting of 2022; no further change before year-end. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates 75 bps
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.99- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US federal funds rate will be at least ~4% by December…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources