Full record
HiteconomyThe US unemployment rate rises within six to twelve months after August 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we'll likely see the unemployment rate start to go you know start to come back up okay now once this comes back up”
The US unemployment rate rises within six to twelve months after August 2022
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-31
The US U-3 unemployment rate is higher than its August 2022 level (3.7%) at some point within 12 months.
Timing caveat for the quantify/score stage: the 3.8% Aug-2023 figure was PUBLISHED 2023-09-01 (after the 2023-08-30 deadline), though the underlying measurement (reference week Aug 6-12) is inside the window. The 'rise' is only 0.1pp above baseline and did not appear until month 12 — whether this counts as a meaningful 'rise within 6-12 months' is a judgment for a later stage. Facts, not outcome value, reported here.
Sources
Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
U-3 (seasonally adjusted) was 3.7% in Aug 2022 (baseline). Over the 12-month window it stayed in a narrow band and mostly at/below baseline (Sep 2022 3.5, Oct 2022 3.7, Nov 3.6, Dec 3.5, Jan 2023 3.4, Feb 3.6, Mar 3.5, Apr 3.4, May 3.7, Jun 3.6, Jul 3.5), then rose to 3.8% in Aug 2023 — the only reading strictly above 3.7%. The Aug 2023 BLS reference week (week of the 12th) falls within the window, so U-3 exceeded 3.7% within 12 months. Criterion is met, but marginally (+0.1pp) and only at the very end of the window.
Reporting confirming U-3 reached 3.8% in August 2023 after hovering near 3.7% through the period.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US unemployment rate rises within six to twelve months…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources