Full record
HitmarketsRisk assets fall further (additional downside) in the months after August 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“over the coming months there will be more pain ahead for risk assets”
Risk assets fall further (additional downside) in the months after August 2022
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-09-01
A broad risk-asset benchmark (S&P 500) trades below its 2022-08-30 close at some point within the window.
resolved_on marks the first trading below the baseline (early Sept 2022); the 3,577.03 close on 2022-10-12 is the extreme instance. Satisfied by any point below baseline; comfortably met.
Sources
Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 close on 2022-08-30 was 3,986.16 (baseline). The index traded and closed below this level almost immediately after (early September 2022) and reached its bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 on 2022-10-12 — roughly 10% below the baseline, well within the window to 2023-08-30. Criterion (S&P 500 trades below its 2022-08-30 close within the window) is met.
S&P 500 daily historical data confirming the 2022-08-30 close (~3,986) and the sub-3,600 October 2022 lows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Risk assets fall further (additional downside) in the month…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources