Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates during calendar year 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“i don't think the fed's going to pivot this year okay i don't think they're going to start cutting rates”
The Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates during calendar year 2022
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
The US federal funds target rate is not lowered (no rate cut) at any FOMC meeting held during calendar year 2022.
Unambiguous, primary-source (Federal Reserve). The Fed's first cut of the cycle did not come until Sep 2024, well outside the window.
Sources
Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed HIKED at every 2022 FOMC meeting and cut at none. 2022 target-range moves: +25bps (Mar 16), +50 (May 4), +75 (Jun 15), +75 (Jul 27), +75 (Sep 21), +75 (Nov 2), +50 (Dec 14), ending the year at 4.25-4.50%. Zero rate cuts occurred in calendar year 2022. Criterion (no cut at any 2022 FOMC meeting) is met.
Fed Nov 2, 2022 FOMC statement raising the target range to 3.75-4.00%, one of seven consecutive 2022 hikes; confirms a tightening (not easing) cycle throughout the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources