Prediction record

Hiteconomy

The Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates during calendar year 2022

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

i don't think the fed's going to pivot this year okay i don't think they're going to start cutting rates

The Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates during calendar year 2022

Made on
2022-08-30
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2022-12-31

The US federal funds target rate is not lowered (no rate cut) at any FOMC meeting held during calendar year 2022.

Unambiguous, primary-source (Federal Reserve). The Fed's first cut of the cycle did not come until Sep 2024, well outside the window.

Sources

  • Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • The Fed HIKED at every 2022 FOMC meeting and cut at none. 2022 target-range moves: +25bps (Mar 16), +50 (May 4), +75 (Jun 15), +75 (Jul 27), +75 (Sep 21), +75 (Nov 2), +50 (Dec 14), ending the year at 4.25-4.50%. Zero rate cuts occurred in calendar year 2022. Criterion (no cut at any 2022 FOMC meeting) is met.

    Evidence

  • Fed Nov 2, 2022 FOMC statement raising the target range to 3.75-4.00%, one of seven consecutive 2022 hikes; confirms a tightening (not easing) cycle throughout the year.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+3.02
Confidence
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The Federal Reserve does not begin cutting interest rates d…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2022-08-30

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Evidence firstMethodology