Full record
MissmarketsIf the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both headline and core), Bitcoin rallies to the 20–21 week EMA ($28,400–$29,100)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“if the inflation data comes in lower than expected then and by the way that means core inflation and headline inflation if it comes in much lower than expected maybe meaning even below the consensus then there's a good chance you will see some type of continued rally for bitcoin and i would be looking up to the 20 week out of seman the 21 week ema which right now are between 28.4k to 29.1 k”
If the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both headline and core), Bitcoin rallies to the 20–21 week EMA ($28,400–$29,100)
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-11-10
Bitcoin trades up into the 28,400–29,100 range within the near-term window after the print.
Condition triggered but the predicted $28,400–$29,100 rally did not occur before the 2022-11-10 deadline; the August bounce topped out around $25,000. Resolved_on set to the deadline (end of the near-term window without the target being hit). A price-series check of intraday highs Aug 10–Nov 10 2022 can further corroborate that $28,400 was never touched.
Sources
Bitcoin and Inflation Data Inbound
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Antecedent MET: the July 2022 CPI (released 2022-08-10) printed below expectations on BOTH measures — headline 8.5% (vs ~8.7% expected) and core +0.3% MoM (vs +0.5% expected). So the 'CPI below expectations, both headline and core' condition was satisfied.
Consequent NOT met: Bitcoin's post-CPI bounce in August 2022 capped at ~$25,000 and never traded up into the $28,400–$29,100 target range. BTC then declined through Sept–Oct and collapsed toward ~$16,000 amid the FTX failure in early November 2022, so the target range was never reached within the near-term window ending 2022-11-10.
Corrections
- conditional condition: The 2022-08-10 print is the July 2022 CPI (named by reference month); the record's own evidence calls it the July print. Resolution unaffected.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both he…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources