Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin's market capitalization will NOT reach $10 trillion in 2022 or 2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“when we started this series back in 2019 the speculation that i always had back then was that it would take at least until 2023 right um the earliest it could happen would have been in in late 2022 however under the current market conditions and and uh landscape that we're currently experiencing right now i don't really see that happening uh 10 trillion happening this year or next year i think we were it's going to take a bit longer”
Bitcoin's market capitalization will NOT reach $10 trillion in 2022 or 2023
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Total crypto asset-class market capitalization does not reach $10 trillion at any point on or before 2023-12-31.
Criterion is a negative claim (BTC mcap does NOT reach $10T by 2023-12-31). BTC market cap never exceeded ~$1.3T in the entire period, so the written criterion is unambiguously satisfied. Resolved_on set to the deadline (end of the window over which the non-event had to hold).
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 26)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin's all-time-high market capitalization as of the entire 2022–2023 window was ~$1.28 trillion, set on 2021-11-09 (price ~$67,617). Throughout 2022 and 2023 BTC market cap stayed well under $1 trillion (falling below $300B in Nov 2022, recovering to roughly $860B by end-2023). It did not approach, let alone reach, $10 trillion at any point on or before 2023-12-31. For context, the ENTIRE crypto market (all coins) peaked at only ~$3 trillion in Nov 2021.
Total crypto market cap first hit $3 trillion in Nov 2021 (all cryptocurrencies combined), confirming Bitcoin alone never neared $10T in the covered window.
Corrections
- What counted as right: Align criterion with the actual subject (whole crypto asset class); outcome unchanged.
- tags: Crypto asset-class market-cap claim → 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary per tag dictionary.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin's market capitalization will NOT reach $10 trillion…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources