Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top) within two years of July 2022
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“i also think it's highly likely that inflation will peak again within the next two years at least to local top”
US inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top) within two years of July 2022
- Made on
- 2022-07-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-11-14
US headline CPI year-over-year forms a new local peak (a rise-then-fall reversal) at some point on or before 2024-07-13.
Criterion (a new local top, i.e. a rise-then-fall reversal, in headline CPI YoY on or before 2024-07-13) is met by the Aug-Sep 2023 local peak of 3.7% following the June 2023 trough of 3.0%. resolved_on set to 2023-11-14, the release date of the October 2023 CPI report whose fall to 3.2% confirmed the reversal. A second local top near 3.5% (Mar 2024) later reinforced this. Values are official BLS CPI-U figures.
Sources
Inflation Surges to 9.1% | Effects on Bitcoin and Stocks
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI YoY fell from its 9.1% peak (Jun 2022) to a local trough of 3.0% (Jun 2023), then rose to 3.2% (Jul 2023), 3.7% (Aug 2023) and 3.7% (Sep 2023), then reversed lower to 3.2% (Oct 2023). This rise-then-fall forms a clear new local peak at 3.7% in Aug-Sep 2023.
BLS/press coverage confirming CPI YoY was 3.7% in September 2023, up from 3.0% in June 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources