Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will pivot (stop hiking or begin cutting rates) in 2023, or by early 2024 at the latest
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“i'd say they'll probably pivot in 2023 and if they don't very likely early 2024 just in time for the next bitcoin having”
The Federal Reserve will pivot (stop hiking or begin cutting rates) in 2023, or by early 2024 at the latest
- Made on
- 2022-07-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-09-20
The Federal Reserve halts its rate-hiking cycle or cuts its policy rate at some FOMC meeting on or before 2024-03-31.
Criterion (Fed halts hiking OR cuts on or before 2024-03-31) is satisfied by the halt: last hike 2023-07-26, then consecutive holds. resolved_on set to the Sep 20 2023 FOMC, the first hold that confirmed the July hike was the cycle's last within the window (halt confirmed, no cut required by the criterion).
Sources
Inflation Surges to 9.1% | Effects on Bitcoin and Stocks
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC's final hike of the tightening cycle was on 2023-07-26 (target range to 5.25-5.50%). It then held rates unchanged at the Sep 20 2023 meeting and at every subsequent meeting (Nov, Dec 2023; Jan, Mar 2024), confirming the hiking cycle had halted well before 2024-03-31.
Coverage: last rate hike July 27 2023 (22-year high 5.25-5.5%); rates then held for over a year before the first cut in Sep 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will pivot (stop hiking or begin cuttin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources