Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will not pivot to an accommodative stance (no rate cuts / continued tightening) in the near term, i.e. through roughly mid-2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“the fed's not going to pivot anytime soon right”
The Federal Reserve will not pivot to an accommodative stance (no rate cuts / continued tightening) in the near term, i.e. through roughly mid-2023
- Made on
- 2022-07-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-07-11
The Federal Reserve does not cut its policy rate nor announce a shift to accommodative policy at any FOMC meeting between 2022-07-11 and 2023-07-11.
Negative-form 'will not pivot' claim; criterion (no cut and no accommodative-shift announcement at any FOMC in the window) is satisfied by the full FOMC record through 2023-07-11. A June 2023 hold is a pause within a hiking cycle, not an accommodative pivot or a cut, so it does not falsify the claim. resolved_on set to the deadline since the claim resolves by the window elapsing.
Sources
Bitcoin, Inflation, DXY, and Stocks
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Between 2022-07-11 and 2023-07-11 the FOMC raised the target range at every rate-setting meeting where it moved (Jul, Sep, Nov, Dec 2022; Feb, Mar, May 2023) and only paused (held, did not cut) at the Jun 13-14 2023 meeting. At no meeting in the window did it cut the policy rate or announce a shift to an accommodative stance; the last hike of the cycle came just after the window on 2023-07-26 (to 5.25-5.50%).
Timeline coverage: 11 consecutive hikes Mar 2022-Jul 2023 (+525 bps); the first rate CUT did not occur until Sep 2024, far outside the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will not pivot to an accommodative stan…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources