Prediction record
MisseconomyUS unemployment spikes within the coming year (by approximately June 2023).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“we're likely going to see a spike in unemployment in the coming you know in the coming year probably in the next coming in the next few months”
US unemployment spikes within the coming year (by approximately June 2023).
- Made on
- 2022-06-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-14
The US unemployment rate rises materially (a spike above its June 2022 level) by ~June 2023.
Criterion (unemployment rises materially / spikes above its June 2022 level of 3.6% by ~June 2023) is NOT met: the rate ended at 3.6% in June 2023, identical to the baseline, having only oscillated within ~0.2pp. No spike occurred; record resolves against the prediction. resolved_on set to the ~June 2023 deadline; the official June 2023 print was released 2023-07-07. Direct BLS TED page returned HTTP 403 to automated fetch but the figures are corroborated by the FRED primary series and the BLS search snippet.
Sources
When Will The Stock Market Bottom? A Look at Macro-Economic Indicators
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS: the US unemployment rate was 3.6% in June 2023, 'little changed' and unchanged from June 2022 (also 3.6%). Over the full June 2022→June 2023 window the seasonally-adjusted rate stayed in a narrow ~3.4%-3.7% band with no spike.
FRED UNRATE series (BLS source data) confirms the unemployment rate held between roughly 3.4% and 3.7% across the entire June 2022 to June 2023 period — the June 2022 baseline was 3.6% and it never rose materially above it.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Fetched primary transcript D0fM5nlujp4 reads 'we're likely going to see'; the record had altered the phrasing and dropped the hedge 'likely'. Verbatim must be the pundit's actual words. Verified against transcript full_text.
Score contribution
-1.4- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US unemployment spikes within the coming year (by approxima…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources