Full record
HitmarketsTraditional (non-crypto) markets will put in a more convincing bottom by end of 2023
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“after inflation peaks which will probably either be sometime late this year or next year right either late this year or next year we'll likely see a more convincing bottom on on traditional markets”
Traditional (non-crypto) markets will put in a more convincing bottom by end of 2023
- Made on
- 2022-06-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
A major traditional index (e.g. S&P 500) forms a durable higher low that holds, on or before 2023-12-31
Criterion (a major traditional index forms a durable higher low that holds on or before 2023-12-31) is satisfied on the record: the Oct-2022 S&P 500 low held all through 2023 and successively higher lows formed. Primary index-level data cited; no conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Bitcoin Drops Below 2017 All Time High
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 set its bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 on 2022-10-12. That low was never breached in 2023: the index's 2023 lows (~3,808 in mid-March 2023, ~4,117 in late October 2023) were durable HIGHER lows, and on 2023-06-08/09 the S&P closed >20% above the Oct-2022 low, meeting the common definition of a new bull market. The higher low held through 2023-12-31.
2022 stock market decline / recovery timeline confirming 3,577.03 (2022-10-12) as the cycle closing low and the June 2023 20% rally off it that ended the bear market.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Traditional (non-crypto) markets will put in a more convinc…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources