Full record
MisseconomyThe Fed will pivot and begin lowering interest rates before the 2024 halving
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“after inflation comes under control which should happen well before the next bitcoin having the fed will be able to pivot and then they'll likely start to lower interest rates again and it will lead into another bull market”
The Fed will pivot and begin lowering interest rates before the 2024 halving
- Made on
- 2022-06-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-30
The Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate at least once on or before 2024-04-30
Criterion (Fed cuts its policy rate at least once on or before 2024-04-30) is factually determinable and did NOT occur — the record resolves on evidence; assigning the outcome value is a later stage. resolved_on set to the deadline, the point at which the no-cut fact was final.
Sources
Bitcoin Drops Below 2017 All Time High
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 5.25%-5.50% from July 2023 onward and did NOT cut through 2024-04-30. Its first cut of the cycle came 2024-09-18 (a 50bp cut to 4.75%-5.00%), well after the deadline. No policy-rate reduction occurred on or before 2024-04-30.
CNBC report confirming the 2024-09-18 cut was the Fed's first rate reduction since 2020, following a hold at 5.25%-5.50% held since July 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Fed will pivot and begin lowering interest rates before…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-06-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources