Prediction record
MissmarketsThe ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next few months.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“i think it's likely to get gonna go down”
The ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next few months.
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-08-31
The ETH/BTC ratio is net lower by ~end of Aug 2022 than at the utterance date.
Prediction was ETH/BTC trends lower over the next few months; instead the ratio rose (~0.073 → ~0.078 by Aug 31, peaking ~0.085 in early Sept) as ETH outperformed into the Merge. Not borne out.
Sources
ETH/BTC: 2022 Outlook
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ETH/BTC (Binance ETHBTC daily close) was 0.07344 on 2022-05-02 and 0.07752 on 2022-08-31 — net HIGHER, not lower, over the window.
ETH massively outperformed BTC from its June low into the Merge: the ETH/BTC ratio hit a 2022 high >0.085 on Sept 7, ~73% above July lows, as investors front-ran the PoS upgrade.
Contemporary reporting (CNBC, Aug 19 2022) confirms ether price outpacing bitcoin as the Ethereum Merge neared.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources