Prediction record
MisscryptoThe ETH/BTC ratio declines against Bitcoin, bleeding lower off-and-on through November 2022.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think the most realistic path for the Ether Bitcoin valuation for the next several months, at least going into the end of the year, is likely for it to go down”
The ETH/BTC ratio declines against Bitcoin, bleeding lower off-and-on through November 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-11-30
The ETH/BTC ratio is net lower on 2022-11-30 than at the 2022-05-26 utterance.
Criterion (ETH/BTC net lower on 2022-11-30 than at the 2022-05-26 utterance) is NOT met: ETH/BTC rose from ~0.0615 to ~0.0727 over the window. Snapshot dates (05-29, 11-27) are the nearest weekly CMC snapshots to the exact utterance/deadline; daily prices on the exact dates are within noise of these and do not change the direction. Prediction of an off-and-on decline resolving lower is contradicted by the data. (No outcome value assigned per stage separation.)
Sources
ETH/BTC: Standing On A Cliff
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CoinMarketCap historical snapshot 2022-05-29 (nearest to the 2022-05-26 utterance): BTC $29,445.96, ETH $1,812.03 → ETH/BTC = 0.0615.
CoinMarketCap historical snapshot 2022-11-27 (nearest to the 2022-11-30 deadline): BTC $16,444.63, ETH $1,195.13 → ETH/BTC = 0.0727. The ratio was NET HIGHER (~+18%) than at the utterance, not lower.
Context: anticipation of Ethereum's Merge (proof-of-stake) lifted ETH/BTC from the ~0.05–0.06 area to a near-record ~0.085 in Sept 2022; it retraced but remained above the May level through end-November.
Corrections
- tags: ETH/BTC relative-valuation is definitionally crypto and carries no fiat-market leg, so the markets-secondary rule (for pure fiat price bets) does not apply -> ['crypto'].
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio declines against Bitcoin, bleeding lower…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources