Prediction record
HitcryptoThe crypto market spends the next several months searching for a cycle bottom (no bottom before ~late 2022)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“We're probably going to spend the next several months in search of a market cycle bottom.”
The crypto market spends the next several months searching for a cycle bottom (no bottom before ~late 2022)
- Made on
- 2022-05-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-11-21
BTC/crypto does not print its final cycle bottom before ~2022-11-17, spending the intervening months below prior highs.
Criterion (no final cycle bottom before ~2022-11-17, prices below prior highs in the interim) is satisfied: the confirmed cycle low was 2022-11-21 and the market spent the whole window far below the 2021 high. Prior June 2022 low (~$17.6k) did not become the cycle bottom.
Sources
Outcome evidence
The Bitcoin macro cycle bottom printed on 2022-11-21 at ~$15,476 (FTX-driven), i.e. AFTER the ~2022-11-17 reference date. Through May–November 2022 BTC traded well below its Nov-2021 ~$69k high, consistent with 'spending months searching for a bottom' and not printing the final low before mid-November.
Reporting on the FTX collapse confirms the November 2022 low (~$15.5k–$15.8k) as the cycle trough, with the drawdown reaching ~77–78% from the 2021 ATH; no earlier 2022 low undercut it.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The crypto market spends the next several months searching…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources