Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will make a new lower low below its current swing low (~$33,000).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“there's a good chance a lower low is coming here, okay?”
Bitcoin will make a new lower low below its current swing low (~$33,000).
- Made on
- 2022-05-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-06-18
Bitcoin trades below its ~$33,000 Jan-2022 swing low at some point within the window.
Criterion ('trades below ~$33,000 at some point within the window') is unambiguously satisfied. BTC broke below $33k in the second week of May 2022 during the Terra/LUNA crash; resolved_on set to the well-documented ~$17,600 June-2022 cycle low as the unambiguous confirmation point (the threshold was first breached ~2022-05-09). No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions.
Sources
The Fed, Inflation, and Risk Off Markets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin fell to a June-2022 cycle low of ~$17,600 (2022-06-18), then to ~$15,500 in November 2022 — both far below the ~$33,000 Jan-2022 swing low, and both inside the 2022-05-06 to 2025-05-06 window. BTC first broke below $33k within days of the call during the Terra/LUNA collapse.
Corroborating record of the 2022 bear market bottom at ~$15,742 (Nov 2022) after the June low, following the drop from the $67.6k ATH.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will make a new lower low below its current swing l…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources