Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin's price will rise if the S&P 500 bounces higher on the open of 2022-05-03.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if the s p can bounce tomorrow on the on the open and we can start heading back heading back up i i imagine that'll also be reflected in in the price of bitcoin”
Bitcoin's price will rise if the S&P 500 bounces higher on the open of 2022-05-03.
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-05-03
Conditional on the S&P 500 opening higher / bouncing on 2022-05-03: Bitcoin's price also moves up that day.
Antecedent satisfied (S&P opened higher and closed +0.48%), but Bitcoin declined ~2% that UTC day, so the predicted co-move failed — prediction not borne out. Caveat: crypto trades on 24/7 UTC days while the equity 'bounce' is a US-session move; even accounting for this, BTC did not rally intraday alongside stocks. Same-day intraday conditional; resolved on daily data.
Sources
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 on 2022-05-03 opened at 4,159.78 (above the May 2 close of 4,155.38, i.e. it bounced higher on the open) and closed up +0.48% at 4,175.48 — the conditional's antecedent (S&P bounces on the open) held.
S&P 500 close 2022-05-02 = 4,155.38 and 2022-05-03 = 4,175.48 confirmed independently (FRED SP500 daily series); the large +2.99% rally was the next day (May 4, FOMC).
Bitcoin on 2022-05-03 (Binance BTCUSDT daily, UTC) opened 38,525.16 and closed 37,728.95 — down ~2.07% on the day; BTC fell while the S&P rose, so the consequent (BTC also moves up) did NOT occur.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution evidence establishes the S&P bounced on the 2022-05-03 open; the antecedent objectively occurred, so condition_met must be true for the conditional to score on the consequent.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's price will rise if the S&P 500 bounces higher on…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources